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  • Writer's pictureNilay Ateşoğulları

The Analysis of Past Election Results Sheds Light on Turkey's Democracy Future

Türkiye has played an important role in the development of democracy since the proclamation of the republic. The first parliamentary elections were held in 1923. Later, in 1950, Turkey transitioned to a multi-party system, which enabled political parties to participate in elections freely.


Turkey, with these important steps in the history of democracy, has created a model for developing countries. Especially many countries in Asia and Africa have learned significant lessons from Turkey's democratic development process.


However, in recent years, there has been an increase in discussions about the negative impact on democratic processes in Turkey. Controversial situations during elections, restrictions imposed on civil society organizations, and pressures on press freedom have led to a decline in the country's democracy indices.


To ensure Turkey's development in the field of democracy in the future, these controversial issues must be addressed. Allowing democratic processes to work freely, granting freedom to civil society organizations and press, and ensuring fair and transparent elections will enable Turkey to continue to play a leading role in the field of democracy.


Past election results analysis, future elections could provide clues on how they might shape up. Examining factors such as voter behavior, candidate strategies, political atmosphere, and economic conditions can help make predictions about future election outcomes. Therefore, a detailed analysis of past election results and data can help better understand and predict future elections.


In 2014 and 2018 presidential elections, there was a high level of political activity in Turkey. In the 2014 elections, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was elected president with 51.79% of the vote. In the 2018 elections, Erdogan was re-elected as president with 52.59% of the vote.


However, the 2018 elections were different from other elections. In these elections, Presidential and Parliamentary Elections were held simultaneously. In addition, the election system changed and now members of parliament were elected using the Hare-Niemeyer method instead of the d'Hondt method.


The voter turnout was 74.31% in the 2014 elections and increased to 86.23% in the 2018 elections. However, the results of the 2018 elections also brought about some controversies. The objections and debates regarding the election results raised some doubts about the validity of the election results.


Overall, the 2014 and 2018 presidential elections coincide with periods of high political mobility in Turkey. The election results provide important clues about Turkey's political future and democracy.




2014 Presidential elections map


10 August 2014 Sunday Presidential Election Results

(including domestic, overseas, and customs ballot boxes)

Registered Voters: 55,592,841

Number of Voters: 41,283,627

Invalid Votes: 737,716

Voter Turnout: 74.13%

Adayın Adı Soyadı

Yurt İçi Seçim Sonucu

Yurt Dışı Seçim Sonucu

Gümrük Kapıları Sandık

Türkiye Geneli Toplam

Oran (%)

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

20.670.826

143.873

185.444

21.000.143

%51.79

Ekmeleddin Mehmet İhsanoğlu

15.434.167

64.483

89.070

15.587.720

%38.44

Selahattin Demirtaş

3.914.359

22.582

21.107

3.958.048

%9.76

Genel Toplam

40.019.352

230.938

295.621

40.545.911

%100





24 Haziran 2018 Pazar günü yapılan Cumhurbaşkanı Seçimi Sonuçları

(including domestic, overseas, and customs ballot boxes)

Registered Voters:59.367.469

Number of Voters:51.197.959

Invalid Votes: 1.129.332

Voter Turnout: %86,24

Adayın Adı Soyadı

Yurt İçi Seçim Sonucu

Yurt Dışı Seçim Sonucu

Gümrük Kapıları Sandık

Türkiye Geneli Toplam

Oran (%)

​Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

25.436.238

807.974

86.611

26.330.823

%52,59

Muharrem İnce

14.951.788

328.934

59.599

15.340.321

​%30,64

Selahattin Demirtaş

4.039.390

157.111

9.293

4.205.794

%8.40

Meral Akşener

3.603.858

36.896

8.276

3.649.030

%7,29

Temel Karamollaoğlu

434.882

7.730

1.092

443.704

%0,89

Doğu Perinçek

95.928

2.573

454

98.955

%0,20

Genel Toplam

48.562.084

1.341.218

165.325

50.068.627

%100

Based on the results of the 2014 and 2018 Presidential elections, the following comments can be made:

1.In the 2014 Presidential elections, the voter turnout was 74.13%, while in the 2018 elections, this rate increased to 86.24%. This means a higher turnout rate and shows that voters were more interested in these elections. This is a positive development for an increased voter turnout in a democratic process.


2.Although the number of registered voters was higher in the 2018 elections, the number of voters who cast their votes is less than in the 2014 elections. The high number of non-voters may be due to several reasons, including voters' lack of interest in the political process, dissatisfaction with candidates, concerns about election security, and the distance of polling stations. Moreover, an increase in the number of registered voters may also increase the number of non-voters. Therefore, different policies and methods can be implemented to increase voter participation in the political process, including awareness-raising campaigns to encourage voters to vote.


3.While there were 3 candidates in 2014, there were 6 candidates in 2018. This situation shows that in elections with a large number of candidates, voters' votes may be divided and increase the likelihood of an undesirable candidate winning. Therefore, careful evaluation of the election system and number of candidates is important. Measures such as limiting the number of candidates or changing the electoral system can be taken.


4.In the 2018 elections, Recep Tayyip Erdogan received 52.59% of the vote, while in the 2014 elections, he received 51.79% of the vote. It can be said that the vote percentages remained almost the same in both elections.


5.In the 2018 elections, CHP candidate Muharrem Ince received 30.64% of the vote, while in the 2014 elections, CHP candidate Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu received 38.44% more votes. This can be attributed to changes in voters' preferences, differences in election campaigns, and other factors.


6.In the 2018 elections, HDP candidate Selahattin Demirtas' vote percentage decreased from 8.40% to 4.22%. Based on the election results, it can be said that the public's trust in HDP under Demirtas' leadership has decreased. There may be various factors behind this situation, but the results indicate a decrease in the popularity of HDP. These results can be an important indicator to be taken into account in HDP's future election strategies and candidate preferences.


7.In both elections, the number of invalid votes was quite high. While there were approximately 737,000 invalid votes in the 2014 elections, this number exceeded 1 million in the 2018 elections. This high rate of invalid votes may suggest that voters were not well informed or mistakenly cast their votes during the voting process. Therefore, more importance should be given to educating and informing voters during the election process.



Since its establishment, the Republic of Turkey has conducted a total of 58 elections and referendums, which is a sign of a democratic society. In recent years, there have been discussions about democracy in Turkey, and some people believe that democratic progress has regressed.


I hope that Turkey will continue to strengthen democracy in the future, and that the elections to be held on Sunday, May 14, 2023, will go down in history as an exemplary celebration of democracy. Such a democratic scene is worthy of our country Turkey. As the youth of Atatürk, I hope that we will protect Turkey's democratic values and principles, and that our country will continue to be an exemplary nation in terms of democracy and freedom.


Nilay Ateşoğulları

30/04/2023, Ankara

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